Numbers are tricky. They can help us find reasons to change our behavior. And they can equally lure us into believing that what we do (or don’t) doesn’t really matter.
To start with, the 2.5-3.5% in this argument - which we stumble across every now and then - doesn’t include the extra adverse effects caused by aviation’s CO2 and other greenhouse gases being emitted far up in the sky. When this is taken into account the number is higher, like 5% or more.
For the US, no matter how we look at it, the numbers are also significantly higher than the global average. Parke Wilde at Flying Less suggests that in the US, jet fuel emissions accounted for 3.8% of the global total in 2017, adding:
“The impact of aviation is yet higher if one counts the “radiative forcing” due to the impact of high-altitude aviation emissions. This consideration may double (using an estimate from the CoolClimate calculator) or triple (using an estimate from Lee et al., 2009, in the journal Atmospheric Environment) the climate impact of aviation. Using these radiative forcing factors, aviation was responsible for between 7.6% and 11.5% of U.S. carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in 2017.”
As the aviation industry is aiming to expand heavily, these numbers are only expected to rise sharply over the coming decades, causing the emissions to reach far higher levels by 2050 (maybe even more than what was earlier predicted, see following slides for some 2019 findings).
Anyone of us who have ever been on a flight, is amongst the most privileged people in this world. We have already used up our part of our carbon budget, many times around and now is the time to cut back. System change will not come without individual action, no matter how much we wish it would. Tell the world that you are choosing to stay on the ground with us by signing the Flight Free pledge today!
Sources and further reading:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/climate/air-travel-emissions.html
https://www.carbonbrief.org/aviation-consume-quarter-carbon-budget
www.cnbc.com/2017/12/07/boeing-ceo-80-percent-of-people-never-flown-for-us-that-means-growth.html